Get ready for another boring run to the men’s Final Four.
What makes March Madness such a spectacle is the unpredictability. Each game can throw away everything we know about the season, allowing Cinderellas to shine and Goliaths to falter. That didn’t happen much last year en route to all four No. 1 seeds making the Final Four for just the second time in history.
This season, there is no doubt of who has separated themselves from the rest of the field. Duke, Arizona and Michigan are in a class of their own. They awaited who would join them as the fourth member, and it was answered in the regular-season finale with Florida.
All No. 1 seed dominance? Guess what? It’s going to happen again in 2026.
It sounds crazy to declare who will be in the Final Four before the bracket and matchups are revealed, but it’s not hard to understand why it will be Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida.
Duke, Michigan and Arizona have been the most consistent. It felt like they could have gone undefeated, and they each finished the regular season 29-2. Florida didn’t have an amazing start, but finished on a 16-1 stretch as it obliterated the SEC to end 25-6 overall.
It’s one thing to win a lot, but it’s another to do it against quality teams. Look at each of their Quad 1 records, as they are conveniently the top four teams in the NET rankings:
- Duke: 15-2
- Michigan: 14-2
- Arizona: 15-2
- Florida: 11-5
These are the only teams win double-digit Quad 1 wins.
Still need more proof? Look at how they’re winning these games. These four make up the top eight teams in the country in average scoring margin; Duke wins by 20 points (1st), Michigan by 19 (5th), Arizona by 18 (6th) and Florida by 16 (T-7th). The Blue Devils and Gators made a joke of the ACC and SEC, the Wolverines handled the loaded Big Ten and the Wildcats made the Big 12 gauntlet look like a stroll in the park. It’s a type of consistency we saw exactly a year ago with Florida, Houston, Duke and Auburn.
That’s why the 2026 tournament is theirs to lose. All it takes is an off night to end a season in 40 minutes. However, these teams haven’t had many of those, any everyone else can’t say the same.
There are plenty of other teams that have Final Four capabilities, like Connecticut, Iowa State, Houston and Michigan State. The issue though is these teams have shown they can’t be trusted. They’ve each had their own problems, whether it’s losing to teams it shouldn’t, or going on extended cold streaks.
Oh, and they’ve all had a chance to play against the Final Four shoo-ins. Only the Huskies were able to beat Florida, all the way back in December when it was much different Gators team.
This isn’t saying the tournament won’t be eventful. There is bound to be the double-digit seed first round upset or surprise run to the second weekend. Just don’t expect it to be at the expense of the No. 1 seeds. Their games may be snoozers.
While it may take out the thrill of it, save the popcorn for when those four teams meet in Indianapolis, because it will be captivating, must-see TV. We already got a preview when Michigan and Duke met in late February, a thriller in the nation’s capital. Imagine that happening again with the national championship on the line?
After happening only once in 45 tournaments, does having an all-No. 1 seed Final Four in back-to-back years show parity is dying in a tournament built on it? Not really, it’s just the teams that are really good, are in fact, really good.
It’s almost become comical how superior each of the projected No. 1 seeds have been. So much so the conference tournaments won’t have an effect on their March Madness outlook.
The 2026 NCAA Tournament is for the taking of the Blue Devils, Wildcats, Wolverines and Gators. The other 64 teams are going to need the night of their lives — and then some — to alter the path.
